As I watch my first Champions League match of this season, I’m reminded of just how competitive and exciting the Championship is compared to other leagues.
Ironically this semi-final between Barcelona and Inter Milan is an absolute cracker, but Inter have just had their fourth goal ruled out by the ever-despicable VAR. Lamine Lamal is an absolute joy to watch.
But I’ll be amazed if there’s anyone out there who wants to tell me that this season’s insipid expanded Champions League format has produced anything too exciting up to now. And we all know how tedious the Premier League has been.
The league in which Portsmouth have secured their status for another season is the best out there, and Pompey have encapsulated all that makes it so.
A side that have been promoted, produced abject early-season performances but stuck by their manager, changed their style of play, improved, stayed up with two games to spare, and now hold the fate of better-resourced clubs in their hands.
I don’t often bet or even enjoy making predictions about the outcome of matches but having been at at Stoke, Derby, and West Brom this season (and Millwall at home the first time!), I think I’ve earned the right to have a bit of fun and try to predict how it’s going to go on the last day.
At the bottom, all five of the protagonists have their fate in their own hands. Hull, Luton, Preston and Derby know that a win is guaranteed to keep them up. Stoke just need a draw. Anything less, and we enter the realm of the permutations!
RELEGATION
Pompey v Hull: The team and the fans will want to go out on a high, but Hull’s need is greater. That should count for something, and they seem to have been better away from home. It’s just great to have all the excitement of the last day on display at Fratton Park, but be able to celebrate a great achievement by the team without the jeopardy. We had enough of that earlier in the season! DRAW.
West Brom v Luton: I can’t see anything other than a Luton win. They have been in great form recently and West Brom have been the opposite and have nothing to play for. From the practical perspective of being predominantly an away fan I should be willing Luton to be relegated, but it was my Dad’s team so I can’t. Nevertheless, these predictions are made with the head, not the heart. LUTON WIN.
Bristol City v Preston: Another one that pulls at the heart strings a bit as Preston is where I spent my teenage years, and I’ve only just revived the annual tradition of going to Deepdale and catching up with my mates. But my head says Preston will struggle due to their downward trajectory and the fact that Bristol City need a result at the top end of the table. BRISTOL CITY WIN.
Derby v Stoke: I feel this will be cagey as Stoke only require a draw and Derby know a point means that for them to be relegated, all three sides immediately below them must pick up away wins. DRAW.
Overall: Preston North End to be the archetypal ‘team dragged into it at the last-minute’, and be relegated on the final day of the season.
PLAY-OFFS
Bristol City v Preston: See above. But it’s interesting to note that as I write this from a Bristol City perspective, I see more potential that they won’t win and this is due to the fact that if this match were to end in a draw, three of the four sides below them could overtake Bristol City with a win. The only reason it’s not all four is that Coventry play Middlesbrough. But I can’t predict two different results for the same match. BRISTOL CITY WIN.
Coventry v Middlesbrough: Middlesbrough need the winbut have the best goal difference so draws in the other matches will see them through. But Coventry, although they’ve stuttered recently are at home where there will be a good atmosphere and won’t want to throw away all their hard work this season. I was impressed with them three weeks ago. DRAW.
Burnley v Millwall: I want Burnley to win the title due to how much I admire the fact they’ve conceded only 15 league goals all season. They’ve only lost two league games as well. But I think Leeds will win the title at Plymouth, and I think Burnley will know that well before the end of the match. Millwall are just the team I could see springing an almighty upset but if I had to bet on a specific score it would be 0-0. I can’t see Millwall out-muscling Burnley.Stalemate. DRAW.
Sheffield United v Blackburn: Blackburn are hot and I think they’ll throw the kitchen sink at Sheffield United who will be mentally focusing on the play-offs already. Blackburn were pretty poor at Fratton Park a few weeks ago, but quick, strong and effective at Ewood Park in January under John Eustace. They seem to have rediscovered their mojo in recent weeks under the new manager and I’m backing them to get the win they need. BLACKBURN WIN.
Overall: Bristol City to get over the line and make the play-offs (but not win them) and Blackburn to make that last-minute charge and get the final place.
Disclaimer: the great thing about the Championship is that these predictions will be wildly wrong. Anything could happen!
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